Washington, 9 March (Argus) —
Indian coking coal demand will drive growth in global coal markets in the coming years and potentially exceed that of China, Massey Energy told investors this week.

“India could surpass China in met coal imports this decade,” said Mike Bauersachs, vice-president of planning for Massey, at the Raymond James Institutional Investors Conference today.

Massey said China imported approximately 40mn short tons of metallurgical coal in 2009. The company expects imports to stay strong, with China manufacturing 47pc of the world's steel, but the company is also looking to India for growth potential.

Bauersachs said Massey “will probably ship a couple million tons of coal to India next year. They are becoming a nice new normal for us versus some of the Atlantic Basin stuff, which we have historically had a great part of.”

Massey is also looking forward to filling demand in the Atlantic Basin as more and more production is diverted east from suppliers in South Africa and Australia. “Australian flow to Europe and Brazil likely is diminished, making us even stronger into Europe and stronger into Brazil,” Bauersachs said, estimating that Brazilian demand could grow 3-5mn tons/yr in the next two to three years.

Last week, Massey Chief Executive Don Blankenship said at the CLSA AsiaUSA Forum that there is “a tremendous opportunity in India to see accelerated growth, perhaps growth rates that are as big or larger than in China.”

Per-capita use of steel in India grew 57pc between 2002 and 2008, according to Massey, which could help increase the country's use of metallurgical coal. US coal exports to India grew 34pc in 2009 to 1.87mn metric tonnes, up from 1.39mn mt in 2008 and from just 801,345 mt during all of 2007, according to an Argus analysis of US Census Bureau export data.

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